North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction
College Football · Saturday, November 21 · 12:30 PM EST
North Carolina Tar Heels@
Virginia CavaliersBellFlow lean
North Carolina Tar Heels model favorite
UNC 63%UVA 37%
Projected score: UNC 24, UVA 17
- Power rating: UNC +4.2 pts better
- Elo: UNC +50
Advanced matchup research
Recent completed games and recorded pregame spreads. Historical trends are not model projections.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Last 20 record8–12
Points / game22.8
Allowed / game23.2
ATS record7–2–1
ATS cover rate78%
L 14–16W 38–21L 35–38L 30–31W 24–20
Virginia Cavaliers
Last 20 record13–7
Points / game25.9
Allowed / game20.6
ATS record5–6–0
ATS cover rate45%
W 36–7L 7–51L 16–19L 13–23W 28–25
ATS is calculated from the latest available spread recorded before kickoff. Pushes are excluded from cover percentage; games without pregame odds are not counted.
Projected game score
BellFlow model forecast, not the final result or a guaranteed outcome.
North Carolina Tar Heels
24
Virginia Cavaliers
17
Projected combined points: 41 · Projected margin: UNC 7
Season advanced team comparison
Observed current-season team averages, records and rankings. Not modeled player projections.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Season record5-4
Power rank#69
Scored / game27.1
Allowed / game22.8
Yards / game366.0
Pass yards / game238.7
Rush yards / game114.2
Yards allowed / game312.3
Virginia Cavaliers
Season record5-5
Power rank#79
Scored / game26.9
Allowed / game21.5
Yards / game411.0
Pass yards / game213.7
Rush yards / game151.0
Yards allowed / game276.0
Key players and recent season averages
Completed-game statistics only; availability differs by sport.
| Player | Team | GP | Pass yds/G | Rush yds/G | Rec yds/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Edwards Jr. | UNC | 9 | 236.2 | 2.2 | — |
| Benjamin Hall | UNC | 8 | — | 47.1 | 16.8 |
| Demon June | UNC | 9 | — | 38.8 | 23.8 |
| Jaylen McGill | UNC | 9 | — | 29.0 | 30.0 |
| Jordan Shipp | UNC | 9 | — | — | 71.3 |
| Jelani Thurman | UNC | 9 | — | — | 58.3 |
| Paul Billups II | UNC | 2 | — | — | 43.0 |
| Beau Pribula | UVA | 10 | 173.3 | 26.2 | — |
| Eli Holstein | UVA | 4 | 89.8 | -4.7 | — |
| Cole Geer | UVA | 2 | 22.5 | 9.5 | — |
| Jekail Middlebrook | UVA | 9 | — | 60.0 | 14.4 |
| Xay Davis | UVA | 10 | — | 28.9 | 25.5 |
| Da'Shawn Martin | UVA | 10 | — | 14.0 | 43.1 |
| Rico Flores Jr. | UVA | 4 | — | — | 39.5 |
| Josiah Abdullah | UVA | 6 | — | — | 36.5 |
Get BellFlow's picks for this game and every game, freeThe spread and total picks, Locks, Play of the Day and live tracking, in the app and by email.
Create free accountSee today's picks
Create free accountSee today's picks
More game previews · For entertainment. Please bet responsibly. 21+.